When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World (Book Review)

When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World

Books about the rise of China (and to a lesser degree India) are a dime a dozen these days, begging the question of why we should still pay attention to them. However, Martin Jacques’ When China Rules The World: The Rise Of The Middle Kingdom And The End Of The Western World does at least offer some new thought-provoking insight into this now somewhat clichéd subject.

While I enjoyed the book, I have to say, I object to the title on several grounds. Firstly, I think that it’s still very much a matter of ‘if’, not ‘when’. Secondly, I believe that we are heading for a post-mono-superpower world, meaning that China would have to ‘co-rule’ the Earth rather than rule singlehandedly. Thirdly, I think the Western world (especially the US) is far from finished, and its influence will remain even if there are fewer Westerners around. Fourthly, if Jacques is correct, then he should have titled his book When China Rules The Worlds (sic), for that would be the logical endgame of its nascent space programme. Obviously Jacques had to go for a bold title, for if his book was just called ‘The Rise of China’, it would have attracted less attention.

His assumptions about the rise of China are mostly based on Goldman Sachs’ 2007 update of its BRICs report, which foresees China’s GDP overtaking the US as early as 2027. I have previously mentioned my own doubts about this (see The Perils Of Long-Range Forecasting), and refer readers to this New York Times article on why these projections may not be realised. Jacques does acknowledge that things could go badly wrong, but he rejects suggestions that China will follow in Japan’s footsteps and enter a ‘lost decade’. I largely agree. While China does have many of Japan’s qualitative flaws, China’s sheer quantity (as Stalin said, ‘quantity has a quality of its own’) and the fact that it is at a much earlier stage of development than Japan in 1990 suggest that its rapid expansion can continue for a long time to come.

Where Jacques’ book differs from most others on this subject is that it is not just about the economic implications (i.e. how many Chinese will own cars or nice suburban houses by 2030), which most investors will be familiar with by now. Rather, he makes an active effort to convey what China’s rise means for us philosophically, culturally, and geopolitically.

An Era Of Contested Modernity

In this regard, Jacques says that we are entering an era of ‘contested modernity’, in which our very assumptions of what it means to be modern will be tested. Essentially, China (like many other countries for that matter) is a ‘time-compression society’ in which several eras are taking place at the same time. With this in mind, the author feels that the widespread assumption that China will evolve along Western lines is fundamentally wrong. This applies especially to the belief that China will eventually become democratic. Another key point he makes is that China is a ‘civilisational state’ rather than a nation state, something which has not existed in our lifetime.

From a practical point of view, Jacques sees Mandarin gaining international prominence, especially in Asia; Chinese films gaining greater global presence; key events in Chinese history becoming more familiar to us all; and Chinese media offering a new discourse on global events, in a similar manner that Al-Jazeera has done in the Middle East, but on a global basis. Moreover, by mid-century, he believes that Beijing will have emerged as the de facto capital of the world.

Perhaps the most interesting chapters are on Jacques’ perceptions that China feels an innate sense of cultural and racial superiority to the rest of the world, and that its economic rise is reinforcing this world view. For example, he writes that unlike the world’s other most populous countries, namely the US, Brazil, India, and Indonesia, China sees itself largely as a mono-ethnic society (despite the presence of many national minorities and the heterogeneous nature of the core Han Chinese people). Most commentators tend to tip-toe around these sensitive subjects, so the author deserves credit for discussing this. However, he is at risk here of making sweeping generalisations, and adopting too fatalistic an attitude. Also, assuming he is correct, I don’t think there is anything unique about China’s apparent sense of superiority. Many societies, especially ones with a long history, feel this way about others, whether they admit it publicly or not.

As a result of China’s cultural confidence, Jacques believes that the country will seek to project its power and values abroad as it rises. For example, he sees the possibility of the return of the tributary system in Asia, in which most countries acknowledge and defer to Chinese hegemony. He also believes that China may start to challenge the entire world system set up by the Western world. On these points I am more sceptical. While I also feel that the rise of India may be overhyped, I still see it emerging as a formidable counterweight to China, and suspect that long before China re-establishes any ‘tributary system’, the US, Japan, and India (and possibly even Russia) will be tacitly cooperating to counterbalance Beijing.

I should mention that Jacques’ book is not written as a China threat book, of which there are many written by national security conservative types in the US – although these people would probably seize on Jacques’ book to vindicate their position. If anything, the author seems very comfortable with China’s rising power, judging by his manner at a mini-lecture on this book that I attended at London’s Borders bookstore a few weeks ago.

Overall, despite my criticisms of When China Rules The World, I still recommend reading it. It is a comprehensive, highly ambitious and genuinely thought-provoking book addressing virtually every aspect of one of the most important phenomena of our time.

Postscript: Chung Kuo – The Middle Kingdom

Twenty years ago, David Wingrove, an obscure British author, published Chung Kuo – The Middle Kingdom, the first of eight science fiction novels portraying a 22nd century world dominated by China. To my knowledge, this was the first English-language book to identify China’s global potential. This reaffirms my view that sometimes, authors of fiction offer more insight than derived through traditional economic method